Mobility & Sustainability
Carlos Rodriguez and Jean-Claude Burgelman are currently involved in several studies which analyse the future of Mobile Communications in the EU.
A short strategy view for the sector is presented in: The Future of Mobile Communications in the EU [pdf ~25 kb]
Ongoing Projects
MAPPING EUROPEAN WIRELESS TRENDS AND DRIVERS
In Europe , the existing mobile landscape has been formed by second and third generation cellular systems. On the back of these systems, new wireless technologies like Wireless Fidelity (WiFi), Wireless Interoperability for Microwave Access ( WiMax), UltraWide Band (UWB) and mesh and ad hoc networking may become the dominant way of exchanging data or making voice calls.
This wireless landscape may be driven by commercial service providers (e.g. providing hotspots at the airports), public providers (as maintained by the City Halls) or not-for-profit communities of interest. These wireless technologies are potentially disruptive to the existing networks.
To understand the potential for these technologies, the present situation and trends in all Member States will be mapped. Which emerging technologies are being implemented, which stakeholders are involved and which services they provide will be identified.
Among drivers for demand, the role of mobile virtual communities and rapid alert and early warning systems must be considered. The effect of regulation must also be considered, as the basis for policy recommendations.
Contact: Carlos Rodriguez, Jean-Claude Burgelman
FUTURE MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS MARKETS AND SERVICES
The scope of this study is to cover at least “IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000” (as defined in Recommendation ITU-R M.1645), but may also include further applications, if it is felt that they address the same market. The study will build upon the work already carried out by the IPTS on third and fourth generation mobile communications.
The study will construct a number of scenarios. These will range from those based on the traditional view of an evolutionary path from 3G to 4G (characterized by both increasing transmission rates and the gradual introduction of new services) to those based on more radical approaches (where the primary objective is not to develop a new radio-based communications support system, but rather a set of advanced technologies for dynamic spectrum access, which will make the Ambient Intelligence paradigm a reality).
Each scenario should explore the following areas for the year 2010, 2015 and 2020:
- The kinds of services that will be required (including such questions as the level of mobility, Quality of Service and coverage requirements);
- Profiles of the potential user population, including both people and devices;
- Potential traffic volumes to be used by ITU for calculating spectrum requirements, taking into account services, users and the impact of new technologies;
- Outline of business plans supporting service offerings.
More info: http://fms.jrc.es
Contact: Carlos Rodriguez, Jean-Claude Burgelman
Completed projects
THE FUTURE OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGIES IN EU: ASSESSING 4G DEVELOPMENTS
This ESTO project starts from the observation that new broadband wireless technologies are emerging in the market that might coexist with 3G or even compete with 3G. These new, emerging technologies are denoted 4G, although the original vision of 4G was different. Earlier, 4G was considered to sequentially follow 3G and to emerge in the 2010-2015 time period as an ultra-high speed broadband wireless network. Instead, one can find at least two visions emerging on 4G, one immediate and co-existing with 3G (WiFi), and the linear one - the traditional telco-equipment supplier point of view - which targeted an orderly, chronological succession of mobile generations. Not only do these competing visions create a flux and uncertainty over what will happen next, but also different policy options and actions will emerge depending on what will take place. However, the future has already arrived, since the competing technologies to 3G are already making their way into the market place. Therefore, a situation of increasing technological diversity is emerging, with a number of consequences. On all counts, there is an urgent need for research that not only seeks to address possible future technology trajectories but that integrates the various socio-economic dimensions that will become critical over the next few years.
The IPTS-ESTO report "Prospects for the third-generation mobile systems" (see the section"completed projects" below) did point out the necessity of considering the influence that those alternative technologies might have for the diffusion and uptake of 3G. It also called for a study on 4G, which should consider the various technologies and services likely to be used and the opportunities that they may bring. This demand was taken up by DG Infso within the JRC-IPTS's FISTE framework. This new study will investigate how 4G will evolve. A number of sub-questions will need to be addressed, such as the possibility of 4G as an overlay network over 3G networks and services; 4G as a paradigm shift leapfrogging the 3G infrastructure; 4G as a linear and chronological succession path. These different paths will be conditioned by technological development and market uptake issues, and also raise different policy and regulatory issues. The research work packages will deal with technology, business models and financial viability
Contact: Carlos Rodriguez, Jean-Claude Burgelman
FUTURE IMPACT OF ICT ON ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
This project aims to explore and assess future impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on environmental sustainability. At the European Council in Göteborg (June 2001) the EU member states adopted a common strategy for sustainable development as an integral part of the EU strategy for transition to a knowledge-based economy agreed at the Lisbon Council one year earlier. ICTs play a key role in the change towards this knowledge-based economy. The interaction between ICT and sustainability (and particularly the environmental dimension of sustainability) is however a complex matter and well-founded evidence of how ICT is affecting the progress towards environmental sustainability is hardly available. One of the problems is how to assess the rebound effect, which occurs when efficiency gains stimulate new demand that counterbalances or even overcompensates the positive environmental effects. Very few systematic research is carried out in this field in Europe and there exists a lack of European data on this topic. The project aims therefore to explore (qualitatively) and to assess (quantitatively) the way that ICT will influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon: 2020).
Contact: Carlos Rodriguez, Jean-Claude Burgelman
IMPACT OF ICTS ON TRANSPORT & MOBILITY
The objective of this Esto project is to investigate the dynamic relationship between Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and transport with year 2010 as the time horizon. A set of framework scenarios of the potential developments in transport-related ICTs will be developed and their impact on passenger and freight transport will be investigated. The study will analyse a number of alternative development paths that may be driven by either specific policy measures or external socio-economic factors. The scenario development process will take into account a broad range of different perspectives on 'e-society', reflecting often opposed sets of values, governance approaches, market rules and institutional patterns. The scenarios will concentrate on key application areas where ICTs are expected to have major consequences on transport and by giving a first qualitative assessment of major questions and challenges in these selected fields.
Contact: Carlos Rodriguez, Jean-Claude Burgelman
3G SUCCESS FACTORS FOR EUROPE
The aim of this project was to achieve fact-finding and well-researched reporting on the future strategic and policy options for European mobile Internet, and 3G in particular. The project gathers insights from the successful experience in other regions in mobile Internet, notably Japan, and formulates implications for the European Union on future policy options, as well as implications for future research.
Contact: Carlos Rodriguez, Jean-Claude Burgelman
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